another complaint against BBC journalist

Thai police officer Wattanasak Mungkandee has again accused BBC journalist Jonathan Head of lese majeste (after previously accusing him in June). This time, Wattanasak disapproves of Head's BBC News article titled How Did The Protesters Manage It?, published online on 3rd December. The article briefly discusses the possibility of royal support for the PAD (a subject also broached by The Economist), though Head clearly dismisses any such speculation: "Some in the government even believe the revered king may be backing the movement, although at the age of almost 81 this seems unlikely".

Zuma sues cartoonist

Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa's ruling ANC party, is suing cartoonist Jonathan Shapiro for libel. Shapiro's 'objectionable' cartoon was published in the Sunday Times newspaper on 8th September.

Prime Minister Abhisit

Breaking news: Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has won this morning's parliamentary vote, and has thus become Thailand's new Prime Minister. Surprisingly, Abhisit's coalition partners resisted lucrative bribes from Puea Thai.

Democrat coalition government?

There is now a real possibility that the balance of power in Thai politics could shift from Thaksin Shinawatra (founder of TRT, and controller of the PPP and the new Puea Thai) to Abhisit Vejjajiva (leader of the opposition Democrats). Following the PPP's dissolution, a key PPP faction, led by Newin Chidchob, has shifted its allegiance to the Democrats, as have four parties from the coalition government.

With four smaller parties and Newin's PPP faction, the Democrats currently have enough support to form a new coalition government. If Abhisit can arrange a parliamentary vote in the next few days, he could be the new Prime Minister. However, Puea Thai may dissolve parliament, thus forcing a new general election, or Newin's faction and the smaller parties may desert the Democrats and return to Puea Thai.

Thai politics is notoriously fickle and factional, so everything is still up in the air. Also, although I personally prefer the Democrats, a Democrat coalition government would hardly represent the will of the people, as TRT/PPP/Puea Thai have won every Thai election since 2001.

The Economist banned in Thailand?

The current issue of The Economist magazine is not available in Thailand. The magazine features a detailed analysis of the Thai monarchy's supposed support for the PAD - a highly sensitive topic in Thailand, needless to say. Whether the magazine has been officially banned is not clear; it could be an act of self-censorship by the distributors, with or without pressure from the government.

PAD protest ends

The PAD's protests will end by 10am tomorrow, according to an announcement this evening. Following the dissolution of the PPP, the PAD declared victory in their campaign against Thaksin's regime. (In fact, the fate of the PPP was sealed by Yongyuth's conviction for vote-buying, and had nothing to do with the PAD.)

How long it will take to repair the damage caused to Government House, Don Mueang, and Suvarnabhumi remains to be seen. The priority now should be to resume normal service at Suvarnabhumi as soon as possible, and to hold the PAD leaders responsible for the consequences of their actions.

PPP dissolved; Somchai banned

This afternoon, the Constitution Court announced its verdict in the vote-buying and fraud cases against three ruling coalition parties. All three parties (Chart Thai, Matchima Thipataya, and the PPP) were found guilty, and are thus automatically dissolved. Their executives, including PPP leader and Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, are now banned from politics for the next five years. Chaovarat Chanweerakul has been appointed caretaker Prime Minister to temporarily replace Somchai. The guilty verdict was delivered from the Administrative Court, as pro-government supporters protested outside the Constitution Court this morning.

Chart Thai's dissolution has ended the political career of its leader, the slippery, reptilian Banharn Silpa-Archa. Banharn is infamous for changing his allegiances at the drop of a hat; last year, for example, he publicly pledged to support the Democrats, though, after the PPP's victory in the general election, he joined a PPP coalition instead.

The dissolution of the PPP echoes that of TRT last year. The verdict is hardly surprising, given the previous guilty verdicts of the Election Commission and the Supreme Court. Hopefully, today's decision will placate the PAD and thus bring to an end the illegal, violent, and extremely disruptive protests at Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang.

another PAD protester killed

Early this morning, a grenade exploded at Don Mueang airport, killing a PAD protester. The victim is the third PAD demonstrator to have been killed in the past month. (Yesterday, the PAD's occupation of Government House ended due to recent grenade attacks in the compound and nearby.)

PAD's Government House protest ends

The good news: today will be the final day of the PAD's illegal three-month occupation of Government House.

The bad news: the protesters will go directly from Government House to join the PAD's blockades of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports.

Meanwhile, with Suvarnabhumi closed for a whole week, there has still been no serious attempt to remove the PAD. The Prime Minister is in hiding, the police are refusing to obey instructions, and Air Chief Marshall Itthaporn Supawong has joined army chief Anupong in calling for the dissolution of parliament.

With the government either unable or unwilling to take any action, we can only hope that the Constitution Court's imminent verdict on the PPP (following the EC's decision in September) will bring some kind of resolution.

Also, it's the King's birthday on 5th December, and Thai people believe that his birthdays are auspicious occasions, thus there is pressure for the PAD's demonstrations to end before Friday. However, the PAD protesters all wear yellow shirts (symbolising loyalty to the King, in contrast to the red shirts of the pro-government demonstrators), and it's possible that they have covert royal support. This would explain why the PAD's actions have been allowed to continue unopposed for so long.

Thai police chief demoted

Breaking news: Thai police chief Phatcharawat Wongsuwan has been transferred to an inactive post, following the continued delay in police action against the PAD. Yesterday's state of emergency declaration gave the police the authority to forcibly remove the PAD from Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports, though so far the police have not done so.

The demotion of Phatcharawat further weakens the government's position, with the police seemingly joining the army in refusing to restore order. PM Somchai remains in Chiang Mai, fearing the possibility of an army coup if he returned to Bangkok, though staying hundreds of miles from the capital prevents him from asserting his authority.

airports become emergency zones

Last night, Somchai declared a state of emergency, limited to two zones in Bangkok: the new international airport (Suvarnabhumi) and the old airport (Don Mueang). This will enable him to authorise the removal of the PAD protesters. He announced that the police, air force, and navy (though not the army) will be deployed to disperse the PAD. Clearly, Anupong's recent 'suggestions' that Somchai should resign and dissolve parliament make it impossible for the government to depend on co-operation from the army. (During the Bangkok-wide state of emergency in September, Anupong refused to break up the PAD's occupation of Government House; yesterday, there were rumours of an imminent coup, after Anupong met Prem and apparently gave Somchai an ultimatum.)

With Suvarnabhumi airport, the government's temporary offices at Don Mueang, and Government House all still under siege, and Anupong's open defiance, Somchai and his cabinet were forced to meet yesterday in Chiang Mai. Somchai still refuses to use force against the PAD, following the violence in October, though if he continues to do nothing he will lose what little authority he still has left. Anupong surely deserves dismissal for insubordination, though sacking him would provoke other army generals to launch a coup.

Anupong calls for dissolution

Army chief Anupong today called for the government to dissolve parliament, and for the PAD protests to cease. (Last month, he suggested that PM Somchai should resign.)

Dissolving parliament and calling a general election would not, however, end the cycle of protests which has plagued the country for the past three years. Thaksin's TRT, and the ruling PPP, have won every general election since 2001, though there have been protests against Thaksin and his successors since 2005. The PAD will not be satisfied until its undemocratic 'New Politics' system is implemented, and the PAD's leaders refuse to enter democratic politics because they know that they would stand no chance of being elected. Yet, they still claim a (totally non-existent) mandate to continue their violent and illegal demonstrations.

Thaksin was elected in 2001, and won a second term in 2005. Then, in 2006, he dissolved parliament following protests against his tax-free sale of Shin Corp. to Singapore. He won a third election, though the poll was later invalidated due to Election Commission corruption. Following the 2006 coup, an election was finally held in December 2007, which was won by the PPP (formed after the dissolution of Thaksin's TRT, though also facing dissolution themselves). The PAD initially called for Thaksin's resignation, though when Thaksin personally selected Samak Sundaravej as PPP leader the PAD's demonstrations resumed. Then, after Samak's disqualification, he was replaced by Thaksin's brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, and the PAD protested yet again. So, even if Somchai resigned, or a new election was called, the PPP (or an incarnation of it) would comfortably win any election in the near future and would be led by someone close to Thaksin, and the cycle of demonstrations would begin all over again.

PAD's never-ending "final battle"

Suvarnabhumi international airport was closed today, after it was besieged by PAD protesters who were trying to prevent Prime Minister Somchai's plane from landing there.

Yesterday, in what they risibly called a "final battle", the PAD prevented MPs from entering parliament, then stormed into the cabinet's temporary offices at Don Mueang airport. (The cabinet were only meeting at Don Mueang, of course, because Government House has been seized by the PAD for the past three months.)

The PAD's core leaders have done as much as they can to provoke the army into staging yet another coup, though army chief Anupong admirably refuses to take the bait. There were two deaths when police used tear gas last month, apparently because of dangerous Chinese gas. But how much longer can the PAD be allowed to hold the country to ransom?

PAD guards are carrying, and using, lethal weapons. PAD protesters are ransacking state buildings, trespassing, and looting. PAD leaders are inciting anarchy and mob rule. PM Somchai must surely do something to stop them?

another anti-PAD attack

A PAD guard has been killed by a grenade. The grenade was thrown early this morning, two days after a PAD protester was killed by a grenade inside Government House. The PAD plans to demonstrate outside parliament tomorrow; when they did so last month, two people died.

grenade kills PAD protester

A PAD protester was killed by a grenade early this morning. The grenade exploded in front of the PAD's main stage at Government House, where the PAD's illegal occupation continues.

The government's latest (and strangest) plan to end the stalemate is to give military assassin Pallop Pinmanee the authority to disperse the PAD. Pallop was previously a friend of PAD co-founder Chamlong Srimuang and he probably organised a bomb plot against Thaksin in 2006, but apparently Thaksin now wants him to return to the Internal Security Operations Command.

Hilarious quote from Tuesday's Bangkok Post: "[Pallop] is a holder of many sensitive "secrets". [He] knows who is the real mastermind behind the assassination attempt and the Sept 19, 2006 coup - information which Thaksin needs as badly as his enemies want to keep it from him". Pallop knows who was behind the assassination attempt, because it was him. And everyone knows who was behind the coup: it was Prem. But (sssh!) don't tell anyone, it's a secret.

now the pressure mounts on Somchai

He was only appointed as Thailand's Prime Minister last month, but already Somchai Wongsawat is facing calls for his resignation.

Today, army chief Anupong announced in a Channel 3 television interview that, if he were Prime Minister, he would resign to accept responsibility for the violence of 7th October. His message to Somchai is loud and clear.

Whether Somchai will resign remains to be seen. He has hinted that he might step down, but only after pushing through an amendment of the constitution. (Changing the constitution, either by parliamentary committee or by referendum, has long been on the PPP's agenda.)

PAD leaders surrender to police

The leaders of the PAD have finally surrendered to Thai police, six weeks after arrest warrants were issued for them. They have all been released on bail, enabling them to return to their illegal protest camp at Government House.

Chamlong back at Government House

PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang has been released on bail, and after he left custody he headed for Government House, back to the PAD's protest camp. (When he was arrested on Sunday, he said he would not apply for bail...)

Also, the Appeals Court has ruled that the nine PAD leaders (including Chamlong) should not face treason charges. Lesser charges of illegal assembly were not withdrawn. Yesterday, PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul pledged that he, Chamlong, and the other PAD leaders would all surrender to police shortly.

Bangkok demonstrations; two people die

Today, PAD protesters gathered outside parliament, in an attempt to prevent MPs from convening. Police used tear gas to temporarily disperse thousands of protesters early this morning, to allow MPs to enter parliament. A bomb exploded nearby, killing a man. Tear gas was used again early this evening, to allow the MPs to leave. Several protesters were reported to have been badly injured, and a woman was killed.

The police have been criticised for firing tear gas, though tear gas is fairly standard in riot control, and its use was arguably necessary in this case to disperse the disruptive protesters. Furthermore, the violence of the PAD was worse than that of the police: police officers were shot, clubbed, stabbed, and run over by PAD protesters.

The PAD's protest is escalating following the arrest two days ago of PAD core leader Chamlong Srimuang. (Warrants for the arrests of all PAD leaders were issued in August, and Chamlong was arrested when he left the Government House protest camp to vote in Sunday's Bangkok gubernatorial election. Pallop Pinmanee, an associate of Chamlong's, has fortunately rescinded his earlier pledge (or threat) to lead the PAD if Chamlong were arrested; thankfully, he changed his mind because he disagrees with the PAD's 'New Politics' proposal.)

artist not guilty of insulting Turkish PM

Michael Dickinson has been acquitted of insulting Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister. Dickinson's collage titled Good Boy portrays the PM as a dog. He was initially arrested in June 2006 when he produced an earlier collage, Best In Show, which portrays the Turkish PM as a dog being petted by George W Bush. He was cleared of all charges relating to Best In Show two months later, though at the same time he faced new charges relating to the Good Boy collage.

Somchai is the new Thai PM

Somchai Wongsawat was confirmed as Thailand's new Prime Minister this morning. The vote in parliament was originally scheduled for last week, but was delayed following a rebellion by five coalition parties. Somchai replaces Samak, who was forced to quit earlier this month.

state of emergency lifted

The state of emergency in Bangkok was lifted yesterday by caretaker Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat. It had been imposed two weeks ago by Samak, following the escalation of the PAD's anti-government demonstrations.

Thai PM vote postponed

The vote for a new Thai Prime Minister has been postponed until next Wednesday, and Samak has announced that he will not accept a nomination for Wednesday's vote.

Samak was forced to resign on Tuesday, by order of the Constitution Court, though there is no law to prevent him from returning to office in the future. Despite speculation of discontent within the PPP, Samak received the party's nomination yesterday.

However, this morning parliament was unable to make up a quorum of MPs; the PPP's five coalition partners, and even a faction of the PPP itself, refused to register for the vote, in protest at Samak's nomination.

The situation provides further proof of Samak's intransigence, and it's a relief that he will now have no chance of being re-elected; it also highlights the PPP's precarious position, dependent on coalition partners and riddled with factionalism.

Jakrapob faces lese majeste charge

The Thai police announced today that they have enough evidence to put Jakrapob Penkair on trial for lese majeste. Jakrapob resigned from the cabinet in May, following criticism of a speech he gave last year.

If they're prepared to charge Jakrapob, they might as well charge the editor of Asia Weekly, too, because this week's issue asks "Is the monarchy put of the solution, or part of the problem?" and, for good measure, rehashes the rumours about the Crown Prince's "penchant for drugs, brothels and shady business deals". (The magazine is published in Hong Kong, though it's distributed in Thailand and throughout Asia.)

Samak is disqualified

Thailand's Constitution Court announced a few minutes ago that Samak's term as Prime Minister must end, effective immediately. The Court ruled that he violated the constitution by hosting cookery shows on TV earlier this year. The constitution forbids a serving Prime Minister from receiving private income; it also stipulates that the entire cabinet must resign following the PM's disqualification.

Samak had been under pressure to resign for over a week, following the PAD's occupation of Government House. However, he had repeatedly refused to step down, arguing (quite reasonably) that an elected PM should not give in to mob rule. Voting to appoint Samak's replacement will take place on Friday.

EC's verdict: dissolve the PPP

The Election Commission's verdict on the PPP was announced today, following last month's delay. The EC voted unanimously to recommend the dissolution of the PPP. Their verdict will now be passed to the Constitution Court for its authorisation.

The EC's decision was based on the Supreme Court's conviction of PPP deputy leader Yongyuth Tiyaphairat, following the EC's investigation into vote-buying during the 2007 general election. The PPP's fate is thus likely to be the same as that of TRT, which was dissolved last year.

state of emergency in Bangkok

Prime Minister Samak has announced a state of emergency in Bangkok, following violence between pro- and anti-government protesters outside Government House, where a PAD protest has been held for the past week.

One man died early this morning, and shots were fired, when supporters of the government confronted the PAD. As a result, Samak declared a state of emergency, putting army chief Anupong in charge of security in the city. The violent clashes have now stopped, though Government House is still surrounded by PAD protesters. Anupong appears more cautious than Samak, and has so far refused to disperse demonstrators by force, recognising that military action would only inflame the situation.

It appears that the violence was instigated by the pro-government side, as they marched towards the PAD, though the PAD's subsequent decision to resist the state of emergency is also extremely provocative. The state of emergency allows the public to move around the city as usual, though it prevents gatherings of more than five people.

The sudden violence this morning came after a weekend of stalemate. Following reports that Anupong and Samak's coalition partners had privately called for him to resign, the coalition leaders held a press conference to reaffirm their support for Samak. An emergency (yet unproductive) parliamentary session was held yesterday to discuss the crisis, though it did not reach any consensus.

[A state of emergency was last declared on 19th September 2006, when Thaksin unsuccessfully attempted to prevent the military coup. The emergency declaration was swiftly cancelled by the military, replaced by a declaration of martial law the following day. Martial law was not lifted until January last year. (Thaksin is currently facing problems of his own, as he has announced the sale of Manchester City FC.)]

pressure mounts on Samak

Tonight, even Samak's closest allies have advised him to quit, in order to ease the political tension of the past few days.

Samak held a meeting with army chief Anupong Paojinda this afternoon, during which Anupong advised him to either resign or dissolve parliament. The leaders of the other five coalition parties agreed during a meeting this evening that they would request Samak's resignation as Prime Minister and PPP leader.

Anupong has repeatedly stressed that a military coup is not imminent, and the close relationship between him and Samak makes his reassurances credible. (Anupong now seems much more rational than his predecessor, Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who staged the 2006 coup against Thaksin.)

The PAD's occupation of Government House started on Tuesday. Samak initially demanded that the protesters evacuate immediately, and a large police presence built up in the area. Samak has shown surprising (and welcome) restraint in his responses to the PAD's "final war", refusing to sanction violent or military actions despite deliberate provocation from the PAD.

The PAD's core leaders have not yet been arrested. If Chamlong Srimuang (one of the PAD's most prominent leaders, alongside Sondhi Limthongkul) is detained, his ally, Pallop Pinmanee, has vowed to replace him. Pallop's reputation as a military assassin leaves little doubt that, if he did take over, the situation would become even more volatile.

Yesterday, the police retreated from Government House. Today, riot police returned and broke through the PAD's guards, in the morning and again in the afternoon, though on both occasions the police soon pulled back out again. This evening, many of the protesters marched to the police HQ, and were attacked with tear gas.

PAD protest continues

The PAD pledged that their occupation of Government House was a "final war", and that if Samak did not resign they would abandon their protests. They then announced that they would remain at Government House for three days.

Well, Samak has made it clear that he will not quit, and today is the third day of the occupation, but there are no signs that the PAD protesters will leave anytime soon. Arrest warrants have been issued for the PAD's leaders, and police have been negotiating with them since Tuesday, but this morning Samak announced that he was withdrawing the police from the area.

In the past few days, Samak has reacted with uncharacteristic restraint. Today's police retreat admirably avoids any potential for violent confrontation, though it also weakens the Prime Minister, who has no choice but to remain in a temporary office at army HQ while thousands of PAD supporters camp out around Government House.

6pm PAD deadline passes

The 6pm deadline for the PAD to disperse from Government House and five ministries passed a few minutes ago. Samak is currently giving a press conference, and has refused to resign. He stressed that the police will use "soft and gentle" tactics, not violence, to disperse the PAD.

Samak also reaffirmed his plan to amend the constitution. Safeguarding the 2007 constitution was one of the PAD's stated aims when they renewed their protests in May. [I'm certainly no fan of the military-drafted constitution, but it was approved in a national referendum. I don't like Samak, either, but he won the election last year. The PAD leaders have no such legitimacy: the mob which supports them amounts to only a few thousand people.]

The PAD call themselves the People's Alliance for Democracy, yet their policies ('New Politics') and their tactics (disruptive street protests, ignoring the judiciary and the elected parliament) are absolutely undemocratic.

PAD's "final war"? If only...

The People's Alliance for Democracy is currently staging its largest, most disruptive protest thus far, in what it calls a "final war" against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's government. There has been a continuous PAD protest since May at Makawan Bridge, Ratchadamnern Nok, Bangkok, though today the protest spread to numerous state buildings.

PAD protesters are occupying Government House, and the Finance, Agriculture, Energy, Education, and Transport ministries. This morning, they invaded the offices of state-controlled television station NBT, forcing it off the air for several hours.

At 3pm this afternoon, Samak made a live TV statement, warning that his patience is running out. Interior Minister Kowit Wattana has issued an ultimatum to the PAD: dispurse all protests before 6pm tonight, or face a forced eviction by the police.

One of the PAD's core leaders, Sondhi Limthongkul, gave an interview to the Bangkok Post newspaper this morning, in which he irresponsibly goaded the army to launch a coup ("soldiers today are cowards") and self-righteously positioned himself as the protector of the monarchy ("If we don't do it, the monarchy might collapse").

Sondhi has pledged that today's ultra-protest will be the PAD's "final war", and that, if Samak does not resign today, the PAD's protests will cease. Let's hope he keeps his word, because the undemocratic PAD is by far the most divisive force in Thai politics. Samak has many shortcomings, but the best way to stabilise Thai politics is for the PAD to disband, not for Samak to resign.

PPP dissolution decision delayed

The Election Commission's decision regarding the potential dissolution of the PPP has been delayed until 2nd September. The EC had been deliberating ever since one of the PPP's deputy leaders, Yongyuth Tiyaphairat, was convicted of fraud by the EC, a conviction later upheld by the Supreme Court.

Under Thai law, if an executive member of a political party is convicted of electoral fraud, the Supreme Court is entitled to dissolve the party in question. (That explains Samak's on-again-off-again scheme to change the constitution, of course.) This scenario was played out last year when Thaksin's TRT was dissolved by the Constitutional Tribunal established by the leaders of the 2006 coup. After TRT was dissolved, its MPs formed the PPP as a replacement. The PPP then won the 2007 election.

If, as expected, the EC's announcement on 2nd September goes against the PPP, the party will be reincarnated yet again. It's an open secret that a new Puea Thai Party has already been formed, ready to rise like a desperate phoenix from the PPP's ashes. Thaksin himself, the PPP's puppet-master, is now in exile in London; he returned to Thailand earlier this year, though he fled to England last week when it became clear that he could not defeat the various corruption charges filed against him.

Thaksin arrest warrant issued

A warrant has been issued by the Thai police for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, following his return to England. Thaksin and his wife are both currently under investigation by the Supreme Court, after Thaksin returned to Thailand to fight the charges against him.

Thaksin's bail conditions entitled him to leave the country if he sought prior permission, and he was authorised to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing. His wife, Potjaman, was found guilty of tax evasion last month, and released on bail. Presumably, that verdict was a signal that Thaksin would be likely to lose his own forthcoming court cases. Therefore, he did not return to Thailand from China as scheduled, and instead flew to London, issuing a statement to the effect that the charges against him were politically motivated and that he would not receive a fair trial.

His stated reasons for fleeing are hardly credible, considering that the PPP is in power and also bearing in mind that, when he returned in February, Thaksin announced that he was ready to defend himself in court.

Yongyuth verdict upheld

The Election Commission's guilty verdict against Yongyuth Tiyaphairat has been reaffirmed by the Supreme Court. The Court's decision was announced a few minutes ago.

The Supreme Court is Thailand's highest legal authority, and its decision in this case has potentially explosive consequences for the government. Yongyuth has been found guilty of election fraud (specifically, vote-buying) and, because he was a PPP executive member at the time, the PPP faces dissolution and its executives face five-year bans on all political activity.

The PPP was formed as a result of the dissolution of its former incarnation, Thaksin's TRT last year. Now, the PPP itself faces the same fate, Prime Minister Samak may be banned from politics, and a general election may be necessary. Non-executive PPP members will presumably form another new party, though whether they will receive the continued support of their coalition partners remains to be seen.

PAD's anti-democratic 'New Politics'

The PAD, currently orchestrating demonstrations in Bangkok against Samak, has proposed a 'New Politics' solution to Thailand's political crisis (a crisis caused in no small part by the PAD, of course).

Unfortunately, and unsurprisingly, the New Politics concept is totally undemocratic. The plan is for only 30% of MPs to be elected, with the majority being nominated representatives. Furthermore, conditions permitting military intervention have been outlined: a military overthrow of the government is 'appropriate' if the civilian government does not prosecute those charged with lese majeste, if the government is incompetent or corrupt, and if the government acts against the monarchy.

Their criteria for validating a military takeover are vague, lenient, and misguided. In any case, there should be no circumstances under which military intervention is ever 'acceptable'. Their plan to elect only 30% of MPs has only been proposed because the PAD knows that TRT/PPP will comfortably win any general election in the near future.

If they really want to position themselves as the saviours of the nation and the King, why don't the PAD form a political party and stand as candidates at the next election? Probably because their public support doesn't extend beyond a few thousand (presumably unemployed) loyalists?

BBC journalist accused of lese majeste

Thai police officer Wattanasak Mungkandee has submitted evidence against BBC journalist Jonathan Head, after accusing him of lese majeste and, incredibly, of being in league with Thaksin to destabilise the monarchy. Wattanasak identified eleven 'inappropriate' BBC News articles, some of which commit the 'crime' of positioning photos of Thaksin above photos of the King. He also cited a 2007 FCCT seminar which Head moderated; at the seminar, Head broached the unmentionable subject of succession: "the King is now eighty; he will not be around forever". Wattanasak was also the officer who first accused Jakrapob of lese majeste, again after an FCCT speech: clearly, he is either paranoid or angling for a promotion.

Jakrapob resigns; charter rewrite dropped

Two substantial Thai political news stories today: Jakrapob Penkair has resigned from his position as Prime Minister's Office Minister, and the PPP's plan to rewrite the constitution has been stopped.

Jakrapob had been under pressure following an FCCT speech last year in which he implicitly criticised the monarchy. Today, the police announced that they will file lese majeste charges against him, and consequently he has resigned from the cabinet.

To introduce a motion in parliament, 126 MPs are required to sponsor it, and last week there were 164 MPs signed up to support the constitution amendment. However, a PAD campaign to impeach the sponsors gave some of them cold feet. Today, the number dropped to only 124, so the motion cannot proceed. The government had originally intended to amend two articles in the 2007 constitution. When it became clear that the amendment was merely a desperate attempt to avoid the dissolution of the PPP following the Yongyuth verdict, Samak proposed a more substantial rewrite, to be decided by a referendum.

Despite the events of today, the PAD [People Against Democracy?] rally is set to continue, and indeed the group is becoming more militant. They are now calling for the dissolution of parliament, a demand they must realise is unrealistic. Are they deliberately provoking the army into another coup?

here we go again...

They say that history repeats itself, and in Thai politics that appears to be true. Yesterday, the People's Alliance for Democracy organised a mass rally in Bangkok, calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister. Why do I feel a bad case of deja vu? Because the PAD did exactly the same thing two years ago. The only difference is that the target this time is Samak whereas last time it was Thaksin.

The PAD's street protests against Thaksin in 2006 led to the dissolution of parliament, Thaksin's resignation, and, ultimately, to Sonthi's coup.

The current political situation is just as volatile as that of 2006, with Samak intending to revise the constitution at any cost. (Now he plans to have a referendum on the issue, even though the current constitution was approved in a referendum less than a year ago.) Anupong Paochinda, who was appointed army chief after Sonthi's resignation, initially seemed to have formed a mutual understanding with Samak, though the atmosphere is tense once again due to Jakrapob Penkair's comments about the monarchy.

In a speech at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand last year, Jakrapob directly criticised Prem (the King's right-hand man, rumoured to be the puppet-master of the 2006 coup) and indirectly criticised the King himself. Despite pressure from all sides, he has so far refused to resign, and Samak has refused to sack him. In a rather intimidating announcement, Anupong let it be known that the army will not tolerate any provocations against "the highest institution". (Thai politics is full of innuendo: Rama IX is "the highest institution", Thaksin's cronies are "the old power clique", and Prem is [presumably] the "invisible hand".)

The People's Alliance for Democracy is, despite its name, absolutely undemocratic. It campaigned for the resignation of democratically-elected PM Thaksin, it supported the military coup in 2006, and now it's calling for Samak's resignation, even though he won a general election less than half a year ago.

Personally, I dislike self-serving Samak, but I dislike the undemocratic PAD even more. If they're not careful, they'll provoke yet another coup. The central problem, though, is the military: if everyone has to tread on eggshells to avoid angering the generals then the army has far too much power.

martial law lifted in most provinces

When he staged his coup in 2006, Sonthi declared martial law throughout Thailand. In Bangkok and forty other provinces, martial law was lifted in January 2007. Yesterday, it was announced that martial law will be lifted in most (but not quite all) of the remaining provinces. It remains in force in Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat, and Songkhla, due to the terrorist activities of southern separatists.

another photo for Samak

Earlier this year, Samak claimed that, despite photographic evidence to the contrary, only one person was killed during the 1976 massacre at Thammasat University.

Now, in today's Bangkok Post, Samak is quoted thus: "I have never seen anyone coming out to protest against the charter of the coup-makers". Although the coup-makers suppressed many demonstrators who protested against the military constitution, there were still numerous public demonstrations. The photograph above shows a demonstration calling for a 'no' vote outside Siam Center in Bangkok, in case Samak's memory needs jogging.

Samak is pretending not to remember any opposition to the current constitution because he wants to claim a mandate to amend certain parts of it as soon as possible. Specifically, article 309 legitimises all actions of the CNS (including the criminal investigation into Thaksin's finances), and article 237 calls for the dissolution of any political party whose executive members engage in poll fraud. Samak is well aware that the EC case against Yongyuth could result in the dissolution of the PPP, and is attempting to remove article 237 before the final verdict in the Yongyuth case is announced.

Personally, I'd be only too pleased to see article 309 dropped from the constitution, because its legitimisation of the coup was one of the reasons why I was against the 2007 constitution in the first place. Also, if only one party executive is corrupt and the rest of the party is genuinely innocent, perhaps the dissolution of the entire party as required by article 237 is too strong. But blatantly rushing through these changes merely in order to save the PPP's skin is not the way to go about it.

Tunisian comedian jailed

Hedi Ouled Baballah, a Tunisian comedian, has been jailed following a performance in which he impersonated Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, the country's President. An audio recording of the performance has been circulating unofficially in Tunisia, where political satire is not tolerated.

Thaksin returns

Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai Prime Minister who was deposed by the 2006 coup, has returned to Thailand. (Since the coup, he had been in self-imposed exile, spending most of his time in England in his capacity as owner of Manchester City Football Club.) He faces two corruption charges, and was granted bail on the condition that he doesn't leave the country without permission.

Thousands of his supporters came to the airport to witness his arrival yesterday morning. He won three landslide elections in Thailand and, while the middle-classes in Bangkok regard him as corrupt, he maintains substantial support in rural provinces; the PPP, which rose from the ashes of Thaksin's TRT, won the 2007 election. As he emerged from the plane, Thaksin kissed the ground, like the Pope: he is an expert at PR and presentation, the very opposite of Samak.

Thaksin has insisted repeatedly that he has no intention of returning to active politics, though many are sceptical of this. Personally, I believe him (and actually quite like him - yes, I know, that's not a popular opinion in Bangkok). But while I doubt that he will return to parliament, he will surely continue behind-the-scenes as the main PPP sponsor and puppet-master. We have seen already how little real power Samak has within the PPP: the cabinet was essentially selected by Thaksin, against Samak's wishes, and Samak has been (unconvincingly) asserting to the media that there's no-one pulling his strings. Future backstage tension between Thaksin and Samak is a distinct possibility.

Yongyuth guilty

Yongyuth Tiyaphairat, a former PPP deputy leader, has been found guilty of vote-buying by the Election Commission. (The EC had initially endorsed him, in a rush to approve sufficient MPs to enable the parliamentary session to begin.) The implications of the guilty verdict are potentially massive. If it's found that Yongyuth acted as a PPP executive, rather than in a personal capacity, the entire PPP could be dissolved (just like TRT in 2007), leading either to another general election or a Democrat coalition government. But that's a big 'if'.

photo for Samak

Samak stated in a CNN interview that "just one died [...] only one guy died" during the 6th October 1976 massacre of students at Thammasat University in Bangkok. He said the same thing in an interview with Al Jazeera: "Only one guy died at Sanam Luang [...] nobody died at Thammasat University". Yesterday, Chirmsak Pinthong was forced to resign from his radio show after he contradicted Samak's account of the 1976 death toll.

The photograph above shows the bodies of some of the students who were killed on 6th October 1976. If Samak counted the corpses in this picture, he might learn something. He must think we are all stupid: how can he have the nerve to claim that only one person died, when it is a matter of historical record that at least forty-six were killed?

Samak denies 1976 massacre

Prime Minister Samak has given an interview to CNN's Dan Rivers (whose interview with ex-PM Thaksin was blocked from Thai TV last year). He was asked about his involvement in inciting the lynching of students demonstrating against dictatorship in 1976. Samak refused to condemn the violence, and insisted that only one person died.

In fact, even the official figures put the death toll at forty-six, and it is widely believed that the real total is substantially higher. (The horror of the event is captured by Horror In Pink, a series of photographs which were exhibited at From Message To Media last year.)

Turkish cartoonists on trial

Two Turkish cartoonists, Musa Kart and Zafer Temocin, are on trial for defamation, after the Cumhuriyet newspaper published their caricatures of Turkish President Abdullah Gul. Kart's cartoon, depicting Gul as a scarecrow, was published on 28th November 2007. Temocin's caricature, of Gul in an envelope, appeared the next day. If they are found guilty, they face four years in jail.

A Coup For The Rich banned